Because library space is finite, they also removed certain traditional character books to make room for the simplified character books. Cheng said that this was brainwashing of the next generation. Cheng called on citizens to spontaneously remove the simplified character books.
By Dan McLaughlin September 4, Despite the increasingly grim outlook for their party in the midterms, conventional wisdom holds that Democrats will head into favored to win the presidency for the fifth time in seven elections. There are reasons for this optimism. Democrats have carried the national popular vote in five of the last six elections, and like Republicans in the years of their dominance of the White House from toDemocrat control of California gives them a natural head start to win the Electoral College.
Democrats appear likely to unify behind a nominee, Hillary Clinton, who would start out not only with historically unique status as the first woman nominated for the presidency by a major party, but also massive name recognition, a strong fundraising network, and leads in most early polls against a fragmented Republican field with no obvious front-runner.
These are all factors worthy of consideration. But any intelligent discussion of must begin with the fact that history is very strongly against the Democrats in In the modern two-party era beginning with the first Republican Party presidential campaign inthere have been 16 elections following the re-election of an incumbent president; in 11 of those races, there was no incumbent on the ballot.
An analysis of those elections shows a startlingly uniform pattern over time: And in nearly every such election, that loss of popular support was evident in closely-divided battleground states, rather than confined to uncompetitive states.
The trend has persisted in winning and losing elections, in elections with and without third-party challengers, in times of war and peace, booms and depressions. It has become more, rather than less, pronounced in the years since World War II, and at all times has been more pronounced when the incumbent party is the Democrats.
Given the narrow margin for error enjoyed by President Obama ina swing of a little less than 3 points in the two-party vote would hand the White House to the Republicans—and swings of that size are far more the rule than the exception.
In fact, looking at the two-party vote, no non-incumbent since Ulysses S. If Hillary Clinton wins the presidency init will be a historically unprecedented event in more ways than just her gender. The Natural Equilibrium of the Two Party System The history of American politics since and to some extent before then has been one in which the two parties are in a precarious equilibrium, even in periods of apparent one-party dominance.
The longer you are in power, the more people come up with reasons to blame you for things and consider giving the other guy a chance.
The natural American distrust of our political class and distaste for permanent ruling parties is also an ingrained factor. No non-incumbent since Ulysses S. One way in which this dynamic plays out is the tendency of the party holding the White House to lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections.
Another is the tendency of the governing coalition to lose support to the party out of power—a centrifugal force so consistent that parties have historically held the White House for more than eight years at a time only when they have assembled a coalition broad enough to sustain consistent losses for multiple elections in a row without ending up with fewer votes than the other party—i.
About that two-party vote: You can use a percentage of the total votes cast, or you can throw out the votes for third-party candidates and use a percentage of the votes that were cast for the two major party candidates—thus, the two-party vote.
Both measures have uses for different purposes, but because every election in U. For the analyses that follow, therefore, I use the two-party vote as the relevant measure, except where otherwise noted, although the charts in this and the next, related article also provide the overall popular-vote percentages for comparison purposes.
Incumbents Are a Tough Act to Follow There is extensive and well-known literature on the advantages of incumbency in presidential elections, ranging from name recognition to the ability to affect events from the Oval Office to advantages in building a campaign operation you can see a sampling hereherehereand here.
Those advantages may well be growing as campaigns become more expensive and voter contact and turnout technology more sophisticated. We heard a lot about the advantages of incumbency inas the Obama campaign raised and spent over a billion dollars, used its resources to build an unparalleled polling and Big Data operation, and saturated a variety of media with ads and messages designed to define Mitt Romney early.
But what happens when a political party tries to repeat the results of a re-election campaign without the advantages of incumbency? At first glance, this may not seem all that alarming, given that the incumbent party won the next election six out of 11 times all of them Republicans, and all but one of them before FDR.
But those parties had all claimed between 55 to 65 percent of the two-party vote in the previous election, while Obama in won a shade under 52 percent.
Look at the two-party vote shares and you will see that all 11 lost ground to the challenging party, by an average of 6.
The average Democratic ticket lost 8. The last ten in a row, all since Grant, have dropped at least 4. And Grant had the advantage of running as a de facto opposition candidate: Andrew Johnson, the president the prior three years, had campaigned for the opposing party, the Democrats, in the midterms and had been impeached and almost removed from office by the Republican-controlled Congress in spring Andrew Jackson in won Returning to the post era, what of the other five elections that followed an incumbent re-election, but that sought to extend the streak with another incumbent on the ballot?
If you include these five elections, the average dropoff is still 5.Captivating, Informative Speech Ideas on Family and Ethics. The family is the necessary foundation of any society. Learning how different families work, through informative speech ideas improves social interaction, and helps students understand the challenges facing different families.
Turnitin provides instructors with the tools to prevent plagiarism, engage students in the writing process, and provide personalized feedback. Nov 10, · Southerner Thomas Jefferson, for example, won the election of against Northerner John Adams in a race where the slavery-skew of the electoral college was the decisive margin of victory.
Dear Twitpic Community - thank you for all the wonderful photos you have taken over the years. We have now placed Twitpic in an archived state.
An examination of the possibilities for libertarian feminism, taking the feminist thought of the 19th century radical individualists as an example and a guide.
We find that the radical libertarian critique of statism and the radical feminist critique of patriarchy are complementary, not contradictory, and we discuss some of the confusions that lead many libertarians--including many libertarian.
He has jolted us to address the decay in our civic culture and institutions.